FY25 Closes — Year-End Trade Audit and the FY26 Playbook

FY25 Closes — Year-End Trade Audit and the FY26 Playbook

FY25 closes with a 28% YoY listed realty re-rate, a 14% pan-India launch pricing increase, and Indias first sub-7.5% cap-rate compression in core Grade-A commercial.

Key findings

  • FY25 listed realty index +28% YoY.
  • Pan-India launch pricing +14% YoY weighted average; Gurgaon +21%, Hyderabad +18%, Bengaluru +12%.
  • Pre-leased Grade-A core commercial cap-rate hits 7.4% — first sub-7.5% print on record.
  • Plotted South Gurgaon Sectors 84-114 delivered 32-46% IRR for first-cheque-FY24 entries.
  • NRI inbound real estate capital touches USD 3.6 bn for FY25 — highest since FY22.
  • Mumbai redevelopment OC-clear Khar–Bandra ticket sizes +29% YoY.

FY25 Trade Audit

Best, worst, and most-instructive trades of the year, with IRR and lesson notes.

Macro Frame for FY26

Rate cycle, fiscal trajectory, capex visibility, currency outlook.

Sector Rotation Watch

Plotted to commercial; mid-market to ready-luxury; REIT to direct pre-leased.

NRI Cheque-Flow Trajectory

Origination geography, destination, ticket evolution — and what FY26 likely brings.

Verdict — FY26 Conviction Set

Three structural trades for FY26 H1.

EstateVeda Verdict

FY25s two biggest trades (plotted, post-election re-rate) are closing. FY26 H1 belongs to pre-leased Grade-A commercial cap-rate compression and Mumbai OC-clear ready luxury redevelopment.

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