Q4 FY25 Quarterly Review — Year Closes on Tax-Reset, Rate-Cut, Sub-7.5% Compression

Q4 FY25 closes the financial year with the post-Budget REIT reset, the first RBI rate cut of the cycle, and the first sub-7.5% pan-India cap-rate compression print.

Key findings

Budget Feb 1 tightened REIT distribution taxation but preserved real estate LTCG regime.
RBI Feb MPC cuts 25 bps to 6.25% — first cut of the easing cycle.
Pre-leased Grade-A core commercial cap-rate hits 7.4% — first sub-7.5% pan-India print.
FY25 listed realty +28% YoY; physical market launch pricing +14% weighted average.
Plotted South Gurgaon Sectors 84-114 delivered 32-46% IRR for FY24 first-cheque entries.
NRI FY25 inbound real estate capital about USD 3.6 bn — highest since FY22.

Q4 Macro Frame

Budget read, rate-cut pass-through, fiscal trajectory.

FY25 Trade Audit

Best, worst, most-instructive trades of the year.

Sector Rotation Map

Plotted to ready-luxury; REIT to direct pre-leased; mid-market to core.

Mumbai Redevelopment Year-End

OC-clear stock map and pricing trajectory.

NRI FY25 Cheque-Flow Year-End

Origination, destination, ticket distribution, FY26 trajectory.

FY26 H1 Convictions

Three structural trades for the next two quarters.

EstateVeda Verdict

FY25 closes with the structural shift to compression-driven returns. FY26 H1 belongs to pre-leased Grade-A commercial direct ownership and Mumbai OC-clear ready luxury redevelopment.